Jerry Scherer

Jerry Scherer is a former financial officer of Northwest Industries, a Fortune 200 leader in planning, control and data systems, where he pioneered the development of computer solutions utilizing optimization and Monte Carlo simulation to facilitate management decision making.

Jerry has also been a CFO and Controller of several manufacturing firms and was the Managing Partner of a consulting firm engaged in providing decision support solutions. JB Scherer Consulting Group is a Value Added Reseller of the decision support tools of Palisade Corporation and provides those tools as well as risk modeling services to companies through PC-based strategic, tactical and financial decision models.

Jerry also works with Bayesian mathematics to improve management decision making.

http://www.linkedin.com/in/jerryscherer1

Jerry Scherer, President

JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC

PO Box 289

Glencoe, IL 60022-0289

http://www.jbschererconsultinggroup.com/

januerry@comcast.net

(847) 835-1175 (Phone)

(847) 835-1189 (Fax)

(708) 805-3300 (Mobile)

10. Decision Making in Excel Using a Bayesian Approach

Whether it is a highly emotional personal decision (which phone or car should I buy) or a hugely important corporate decision (which product lineshould I sell off), there are basic pieces of

information that need to be considered before you arrive at a conclusion and, despite all the factors

that you may be considering, bear in mind that there may be a surprise choice that you haven’t thought about at all.

How can we use Excel to help us make a better decision?

Can the Bayes Theorem provide any clarity?

Inspired by a highly robust decision software platform designed by Professor Emeritus Willard Zangwill, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, a colleague of mine, Shep Pryor, employed the Bayes Theorem to program the essence of an analytical decision process, while leaving the parameterization of the weights and relative importance of the inputs to the user.....

You can find the full article in the file attached below

Decision Making in Excel using a Bayesian Approach [166 Kb]

9. What Difference Does A Distribution Make?

The thought occurred to me to explore the importance of selecting the right probability distribution as you create your risk model.

Is it of major importance?

Our task is to find the best distribution to portray the shape of an uncertain variable.

I will present the case and give you my opinion, but, in the end, you are encouraged to reach your own conclusions

What Difference Does A Distribution Make? [306 Kb]

8. Risk Register

Multiple Risks

Suppose your company is making an investment in a foreign location. You have prepared a 10-Year Net Present Value Analysis and the suggested decision of that analysis is to proceed. There is certainly risk associated with your forecast of Base Sales, Growth Rate, Direct and Indirect Costs, as well as Inflation and Discount Rates. But, those are only the tip of the iceberg when you think about all of the possible things that could go wrong over such a lengthy period. How do you increase your comfort level? Let’s see what a Risk Register can do for you.

Risk Register [263 Kb]

Jerry Scherer

Jerry Scherer

Contents

10. Decision Making in Excel Using a Bayesian Approach

9. What Difference Does A Distribution Make?

8. Risk Register