Jerry Scherer

Jerry Scherer is a former financial officer of Northwest Industries, a Fortune 200 leader in planning, control and data systems, where he pioneered the development of computer solutions utilizing optimization and Monte Carlo simulation to facilitate management decision making.

Jerry has also been a CFO and Controller of several manufacturing firms and was the Managing Partner of a consulting firm engaged in providing decision support solutions. JB Scherer Consulting Group is a Value Added Reseller of the decision support tools of Palisade Corporation and provides those tools as well as risk modeling services to companies through PC-based strategic, tactical and financial decision models.

Jerry also works with Bayesian mathematics to improve management decision making.

 http://www.linkedin.com/in/jerryscherer1

Jerry Scherer, President 

JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC

PO Box 289

Glencoe, IL 60022-0289

http://www.jbschererconsultinggroup.com/

januerry@comcast.net

(847) 835-1175 (Phone)

(847) 835-1189 (Fax)

(708) 805-3300 (Mobile)

9. What Difference Does A Distribution Make?

8. Risk Register

7. Why Should Companies Forecast and What Is The Best Method?

6. The Anatomy of a Decision

5. Decision making and an introduction to surprise via Bayes

4. Metrics Meet Monte Carlo

3. Dispelling the Myth That My Company Is Too Small For Risk Modeling

2. A Most Un(Likely) Case Scenario

1. Navigating Through Uncertain Times

The thought occurred to me to explore the importance of selecting the right probability distribution as you create your risk model.

Is it of major importance?

Our task is to find the best distribution to portray the shape of an uncertain variable.

I will present the case and give you my opinion, but, in the end, you are encouraged to reach your own conclusions

Multiple Risks

Suppose your company is making an investment in a foreign location. You have prepared a 10-Year Net Present Value Analysis and the suggested decision of that analysis is to proceed. There is certainly risk associated with your forecast of Base Sales, Growth Rate, Direct and Indirect Costs, as well as Inflation and Discount Rates. But, those are only the tip of the iceberg when you think about all of the possible things that could go wrong over such a lengthy period. How do you increase your comfort level? Let’s see what a Risk Register can do for you.

Forecasting Technology Today

Industry leaders as well as the Financial Planning and Analysis community must keep abreast of technological advancements in the area of forecasting and strategic planning. It is vital that appropriate tools are utilized in today’s uncertain economic environment. The good news is that there are excellent, powerful tools in existence. Although Artificial Intelligence may provide even further advancements in the future, those advancements are not here yet for general use.

Let’s look at the questions of why companies should forecast and what is the best method